Hendri Saputra, a doctoral student of the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia (DTSL FTUI), successfully earned his doctoral degree after completing an open doctoral promotion session on Thursday (January 8). Through his dissertation entitled “Assessment of Accident Causation Factors in Airport Runway Strips Using Stochastic and Lexical Uncertainty,” Hendri became the 90th Doctoral graduate of DTSL FTUI and the 647th Doctoral graduate of FTUI, graduating with a Very Satisfactory distinction and a GPA of 3.98.
Runway safety issues have been identified by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) as a priority for achieving global aviation safety, as approximately half of all accidents and serious incidents occur in the vicinity of runways. In particular, runway excursions represent a category that must be closely monitored, as they currently constitute the primary aviation safety risk due to their high frequency. Runway excursions remain a top priority because they account for the largest proportion of aviation accidents worldwide, with approximately 40–50 percent of accidents recorded annually by the ICAO.
In response to this challenge, Hendri developed an assessment of accident causation factors in airport runway strips, utilizing stochastic and lexical uncertainty approaches to analyze the probability of aircraft accidents occurring within these areas.
Using the 3M model framework and epidemiological theory as precedents, this research explored accident causation variables in greater depth. The study resulted in a model that combines stochastic and lexical methods, which complement each other in supporting aviation regulators to assess accident causation factors based on historical accident and incident data. This approach also helps address data-related challenges, such as limited or non-representative datasets, inconsistencies arising from data collected using varying measurement scales, and gaps in standard generic models commonly applied in accident causation analysis.
“This research aims to assist aviation regulators and stakeholders in understanding accident causation factors more realistically, particularly when available historical data are limited or not fully representative,” Hendri Saputra explained. He added that the integration of stochastic and lexical methods is expected to bridge gaps in existing generic accident analysis models.
The key findings of the study for aircraft accidents or incidents occurring in runway strips at Indonesian airports include:
* Data analysis using categorical data correlation does not indicate sufficiently strong associations among accident causation factors.
* The application of stochastic and lexical methods produces new safety barrier values for accident causation factors.
* Analysis using stochastic and lexical methods yields probability values which, despite differing magnitudes, demonstrate consistent patterns and similar tendencies;
* The highest probability rankings—both stochastically and lexically—for runway excursion causation factors are vehicles, environment and facilities, and human factors.
The combined probability calculation of all variables across the three categories (environment and facilities, human factors, and vehicles), when treated as independent events, indicates a “low likelihood” of causing accidents. However, this likelihood increases when the combined probability is calculated under the assumption that the events are not mutually independent.
The Dean of FTUI, Prof. Kemas Ridwan Kurniawan, S.T., M.Sc., Ph.D., also highlighted the importance of Hendri’s research. “Aviation safety is critically important, as air transportation has become the primary choice for public travel. We hope that this research will contribute to improving aviation safety so that air transport users can travel with greater confidence,” said Prof. Kemas.
The research findings were presented at the open doctoral promotion session chaired by Prof. Dr. Ir. Yanuar, M.Eng., M.Sc., as Chair of the Session, with Prof. Dr. Ir. Sutanto, M.Eng., serving as Promotor, and Tri Tjahjono, M.Sc., Ph.D., as Co-Promotor. The panel of examiners consisted of Ayomi Dita Rarasati, S.T., M.T., Ph.D.; Prof. Dr. Ir. Sigit Pranowo Hadiwardoyo, DEA.; Prof. Dr. Ir. Nahry, M.T.; Prof. Ir. R. Jachrizal Sumabrata, M.Sc. (Eng), Ph.D.; and Dr. Abadi Dwi Saputra, S.Si.T., M.Sc., CRMO, as an external examiner from the Inspectorate General of the Ministry of Transportation.
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