According to data from the Indonesian Ministry of Health in 2020, 34.5% of Covid-19 deaths were people with diabetes mellitus. This growing concern has led to the trend of infectious disease modeling to gain more knowledge and try to find the best solution to flatten the curve. Three students from the Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia (DTI FTUI), conducted research related to the development model of cases of diabetics in Indonesia during the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the efforts made to reduce the death rate of diabetics in Indonesia.
The three DTI FTUI students are Alivanza Firdaus Rhufyano, Daffa Aqilah Sofiyan, Hanif Rahman Arifin under the guidance of Dr. Komarudin, ST, M.Eng., a lecturer at the Department of Industrial Engineering, FTUI. Thanks to their research, the three FTUI students won Second Place in the 2022 Mathematics Modeling Competition (MMC). This Mathematical Modeling Competition was organized by the Mathematics Student Association (HIMATIKA) ITB on 27 December 2021—20 March 2022.
“Our research leads to a model of the effect of diabetes during the Covid-19 pandemic in the correlation of mortality rates. With this model, we propose a strategy that can lead to a reduction in the mortality rate of diabetics in the Covid-19 Pandemic. We analyzed the population dynamics of diabetes during the Covid-19 pandemic and generated a model consisting of eleven compartments, S, D, Dc, I, Id, Ic, R, Rd, Rc, M, and Md, each of which represents a population classification based on diabetes and Covid-19 infection. The model is then fitted to the current Indonesian population data. We propose five strategies to help reduce the risk of death rates in diabetics during the pandemic,” said Alivanza, team leader.
The five strategies are mandatory masks and social distancing, mass vaccination programs, public diabetes awareness programs, providing accessible health care, and imposing taxes on unhealthy foods, including sugar. “These five strategies are then implemented in three different scenarios. Based on the simulation results, the most effective scenario is the second scenario, which is a combination of mandatory application of masks and social distancing, mass vaccination programs, public diabetes awareness programs, and providing accessible health care. The implementation of the second strategy resulted in a decrease in mortality in diabetics by 0.3444%, from 1.1022% to 0.7578%,” said Daffa.
“The research results of these students can be a solution to the problems faced by diabetics in the world and in Indonesia in recent years. The risk of death is increasing among people with diabetes as a result of the global Covid-19 pandemic. Hopefully with the model developed by the FTUI student team, it can be input in future government policy making,” said the Dean of FTUI, Prof. Dr. Heri Hermansyah, ST., M.Eng., IPU.
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Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Indonesia